Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market inventory is up, but new listings are down

By Frances Marcou

Real estate, Primary market

Inventory is up. New listings are down. Those two things together tell a specific story for every homeowner in this market.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 2,103 homes for sale across the Primary market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 3.1% from the same period a year before. At the same time, new listings fell 4.4% to 1,954. So the competition is coming from homes already on the market, not a wave of brand-new ones.

For a seller, that means your home is competing with listings that have been sitting a while. Buyers have more to choose from than last year. Pricing sharp matters more now.

The National Association of Realtors puts U.S. supply at 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years. Here in the Primary market, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows most ZIP codes sitting between 3.2 and 5.3 months. That is not a glut, but it is not tight either.

Months of supply by ZIP code

Rates are adding pressure on both sides. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. Realtor.com reported that rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. That slows buyers down.

Realtor.com also reported that homes under contract nationally fell 4.1% year over year as of September 30, 2026. The Primary market shows the same lean. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,492 pending sales across the market, down 2.1% from a year before.

How each ZIP code is moving

Not every ZIP reads the same. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows real differences across the market in the three months ending July 31, 2026.

ZIP 37072 had the fewest months of supply at 3.2 and the shortest median time on market at 55 days. ZIP 37066 saw its median price climb 12.6% year over year to $485,000. ZIP 37075 dipped 0.9% to $535,000. ZIP 37073 saw the steepest price drop, down 10% to $379,950, and days on market jumped 39 days longer than a year before. All numbers from the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. Quarter over quarter, prices rose 0.3%. Gains are still happening, just at a slower pace.

The share of homes selling above list price has fallen in most ZIP codes. In 37075, it dropped 5.9 points to 11.7%. In 37073, it dropped 7.3 points to 5.7%. In 37031, not one home sold above list. ZIP 37048 went the other way, up 16.7 points to 21.7%. All from the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

As Fran Marcou says, "I'm here to give you clarity, not a sales pitch." The numbers above are the whole market. Your street is something else entirely. Reach out and let's look at it together.